Don’t Freak Out About the Recent Mortgage Rate ‘Spike’

Queue the panic. Mortgage rates have officially spiked and the media is all over it. Yep, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 2.65% to 2.79% this week, per Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater noted in the weekly news release that mortgage rates have been under pressure [&hellip

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Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

The 2021 Housing Market Is Kind of Like the Toilet Paper Shortage

To say residential real estate is on fire would be a huge understatement. In fact, it’s so popular that we’re literally running out of homes. Simply put, there are too many home buyers and not enough properties for sale, nor is the supply being replenished fast enough. In a way, it reminds me of the [&hellip

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Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

It’s Taking a Really Long Time to Get a Mortgage Right Now

Similar to the increased waiting times to get a COVID-19 test these days, it’s taking an extended amount of time to get a mortgage to the finish line. The reason is simply unprecedented demand, just like those COVID-19 tests. The more people that need one, the longer the wait, period. This is the downside to [&hellip

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Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

2021 Mortgage Rate Predictions: Mostly Flat But More Record Lows Possible

Yet another year is about to come to an end, and that means it’s time to look ahead to what next year has in store. I think just about everyone wants to see the back of 2020, though it wasn’t all bad news. The housing market actually held up surprisingly well, and mortgage lenders enjoyed [&hellip

The post 2021 Mortgage Rate Predictions: Mostly Flat But More Record Lows Possible first appeared on The Truth About Mortgage.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Value of U.S. Housing Market Hits Another All-Time High

Value of U.S. Housing Market Hits Another All-Time High

Posted on October 29th, 2020

In the second quarter of 2020, the U.S. housing market hit an all-time high of $32.8 trillion, per The Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds Report, as referenced in the latest Monthly Chartbook from the Urban Institute.

That was up from roughly $32.4 trillion in the first quarter of 2020, thanks to an increase in home equity from $21.1 trillion to $21.5 trillion.

Meanwhile, outstanding mortgage debt remained steady at $11.3 trillion, which tells us most borrowers are paying down existing mortgages and/or applying for rate and term refinances to lower monthly payments.

And that’s a good thing because it means most homeowners aren’t overleveraged like they were back in 2006, before the housing crisis ushered in the Great Recession.

Looking at it a different way, American homeowners have a collective loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of about 34%.

The Housing Market Appears to Be Healthy Despite Record Home Prices

value of housing market

  • U.S. property values continue to rise as mortgage debt keeps falling
  • American homeowners have a collective loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of about 34%
  • Mortgage debt is essentially unchanged from 2006 while home values have risen nearly $8 trillion
  • This means today’s homeowners are in good shape overall, but it’s harder for new buyers to enter the market

While one could always express caution when prices hit all-time highs, you’ve got to consider more than just the price.

More important is to look at housing affordability and the debt held by existing homeowners.

Fortunately, U.S. homeowners only carry a collective $11.3 trillion in mortgage debt, which appears to be flat or even lower than total housing debt back in 2006.

There are several reasons why today’s homeowners are carrying a lot less mortgage debt. For one, most haven’t tapped their equity.

Very few homeowners these days have applied for cash out refinances or pulled equity via home equity line of credit or home equity loan.

cash out share

Instead, they’ve been paying down their home loans each month, enjoying tailwinds propelled by record low mortgage rates.

Simply put, homeowners owe less and pay more in principal with each monthly payment, creating a housing market that is less leveraged.

This is a good thing for individual households and for the housing market as a whole because it means borrowers aren’t overextended, and have options if they’re unable to keep up with monthly payments.

A decade ago, mortgage payments often weren’t affordable because of so-called exploding ARMs that reset much higher after the borrower enjoyed an initial teaser rate.

And because they didn’t have any skin in the game, aka home equity, they couldn’t refinance to seek out payment relief.

That led to a flood of short sales and foreclosures, and eventually the creation of widespread loan modification programs such as HAMP and HARP.

Today, even if a homeowner falls behind due to COVID-19 or another setback, they could potentially sell for a tidy profit and move on.

This protects both that individual and their local housing market, which might otherwise suffer from declining property values due to the presence of distressed home sales.

In summary, this is why today’s housing market is very different than the one we experienced more than a decade ago, despite some economists seeing home prices in “bubble territory.”

But What About Housing Affordability Today?

  • Mortgage affordability has actually improved in recent years despite surging home prices
  • Existing homeowners typically spent 17.5% of household income on their monthly housing payments in September, down from 19.6% two years ago
  • Low mortgage rates are improving affordability, but rising down payments are hurting prospective buyers
  • Property values have grown at 2X rate of incomes over the past six years, and typical U.S. home now worth 3.08 times median homeowner household income

It’s great that existing homeowners are enjoying record low mortgage rates and equally affordable housing payments, but what about prospective home buyers?

Well, housing affordability has actually improved since 2018 due to the ultra-low mortgage rates available, per a new analysis from Zillow.

This is despite the fact that home values have grown at about double the rate of incomes over the past six years.

While households typically spent just 17.5% of income on monthly housing payments in September, down from 19.6% two years earlier, the typical U.S. property is now worth 3.08 times median homeowner household income, an all-time high per Zillow.

In other words, monthly payments are cheap for existing homeowners, but their properties are valued well above their incomes.

They remain affordable because many of these homeowners have small mortgage balances and super low mortgage rates.

But if these same folks were to buy their homes today, it might not work out, which brings us to those prospective buyers, or Gen Z home buyers.

Zillow noted that home values have increased a whopping 38.3% since September 2014, while homeowner incomes have gone up just 18.8% over the same period.

If a home buyer puts down 20% on a median-priced property they would have only needed about $36,600 at the start of 2014, or 6.4 months of income for a median homeowner household.

Today, they’d need a $52,000 down payment, which is 7.5 months of income for that 20% down payment to avoid PMI and obtain a more favorable interest rate.

Even worse for those still renting, Zillow expects home prices to rise a further 7% over the next year, which would increase that required down payment another $3,600 to about $55,600.

This is essentially going to steer more new home buyers into low down payment mortgages, such as FHA loans that only require 3.5% down, or Fannie Mae HomeReady and its mere 3% down requirement.

While it at least gives them an option, they’re going to have higher mortgage payments as a result, due to a larger loan amount, higher mortgage rate, and compulsory mortgage insurance.

Additionally, they’ll have very little skin in the game, which could present a problem if home prices take a turn for the worse, as they did a decade ago.

The good news is the bulk of homeowners are sitting pretty on mounds of equity, so assuming cash out refis don’t become the next big thing, the overall housing market should be relatively safe.

Could Existing Homeowners Afford to Buy Their Properties at Today’s Prices?

One last thing. We’ve basically got this weird situation where a lot of existing homeowners probably wouldn’t be able to afford their same properties if they were to purchase them today.

However, they’ve got a ton of home equity that is only growing each month thanks to regular payments of principal and rising home prices, meaning more money is essentially locked in their properties.

At the same time, it makes a move difficult because even a lateral purchase would be pricey from an affordability standpoint when you factor in stagnant incomes and higher property taxes.

Or the fact that some of these owners are retired or not making peak income.

In the end, it further exacerbates an already difficult situation in terms of housing inventory, which has been on the record low end of things for quite a while.

That just points to even higher home prices and lots of equity accrual, which buffers the housing market, but makes it increasingly difficult for new homeowners to get into the game.

Don't let today's rates get away.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Beware the New Mortgage Fee Fearmongering

Beware the New Mortgage Fee Fearmongering

You may have heard there’s a “new mortgage fee.” And you might have been told to hurry up and refinance NOW to avoid said fee.

While there is some truth to that, it is by no means a reason to panic, nor is it even applicable to all homeowners.

Additionally, it’s possible it may not save you money to refinance now versus a couple months from today, depending on what direction mortgage rates go.

So before we all get in a tizzy and give in to what some are clearly utilizing as a scare tactic, let’s set the record straight.

What the New Mortgage Fee Is and Is Not

  • A 50-basis point cost known as the Adverse Market Refinance Fee intended to offset COVID-19 related losses
  • It’s not a .50% higher mortgage rate
  • It’s an additional .50% of the loan amount via closing costs
  • Only applies to mortgage refinance loans backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
  • Home purchase loans are NOT affected by the new fee
  • Nor does it apply to FHA loans, USDA loans, or VA loans

Over the past week, I’ve been bombarded by articles warning of the new mortgage fee – most feature something to the effect of “refinance now” and “act fast!”

But in reality, you might not need to do anything different, nor hurry.

Sure, it’s an amazing time to refinance a mortgage, what with mortgage rates hovering at or record all-time lows. No one can argue that.

Still, it all seemed to come to a screeching halt two weeks ago when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac surprised us with their Adverse Market Refinance Fee, which is designed to offset $6 billion in COVID-19 related losses.

Why would they do such a thing at a time when the economy (and homeowners) are already suffering due to COVID-19? Well, that’s a different story and not really worth getting into here.

The important thing to know is this new mortgage fee only applies to home loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and only if you’re refinancing an existing mortgage.

It has nothing to do with FHA loans, USDA loans, VA loans, or home purchase loans. Or jumbo loans while we’re at it.

Additionally, they have since exempted Affordable refinance products, including HomeReady and Home Possible, and refinance loans with an original principal amount of less than $125,000.

Some single-close construction-to-permanent loans are also exempt.

In terms of cost, it’s .50% of the loan amount, not a .50% increase in mortgage rate. That could mean another $1,500 in closing costs on a $300,000 loan, which is nothing to sneeze at.

But mortgage rates don’t live in a vacuum, and can change daily, so how much more (or less) you’ll actually pay depends on what transpires between now and the implementation date.

When Does the New Mortgage Fee Go into Effect?

  • Applies to loans purchased or delivered to Fannie and Freddie on or after December 1st, 2020
  • This means you’d want to apply for a refinance 60 or so days before that cutoff
  • Since mortgages are sold and securitized once the loan actually funds
  • But remember there’s more to mortgage pricing than just this new fee

The fee was originally supposed to go into effect for loans purchased or delivered to Fannie and Freddie on or after September 1st, 2020, but after much uproar, they just delayed it to December 1st, 2020.

This doesn’t mean you have until December 1st to apply for a refinance in order to avoid the fee.

Since we’re talking purchase of your loan or delivery of your loan so it can be bundled into a mortgage-backed security, there needs to be a buffer.

We have to account for how long it takes to get a mortgage, plus the post-closing stuff that takes place before delivery or sale.

You’d really want to get your refinance in maybe 60+ days prior to December 1st to be safe, though it’s unclear if mortgage lenders will already start baking in the fee even earlier.

If not, you might be stuck paying an additional .50% of your loan amount, either via out-of-pocket closing costs or a slightly higher mortgage rate.

Assuming you don’t want to pay anything at the closing table, your interest rate might be .125% higher, all else being equal.

So if you qualified for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 2.5%, it might be 2.625% instead. On a $300,000 loan, it’s about $20 higher per month.

Sure, nobody wants to pay more, but it shouldn’t be a refinance deal breaker for most folks.

And here’s the other thing – mortgage rates might move lower over the next few months due to, I don’t know, COVID-19, the most contentious presidential election in recent history, a stock market that could collapse at any moment, and so on.

In other words, if mortgage rates drop another .25% or .375% by later this year, it’s possible to come out ahead, even with the new fee.

The counterpoint is not to look a gift horse in the mouth. Either way, don’t panic.

Don't let today's rates get away.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Home Prices Are Expected to Rise Another 10% by Next November

Home Prices Are Expected to Rise Another 10% by Next November

Posted on December 21st, 2020

If you’re an existing homeowner, get excited, very excited.

A new forecast from Zillow says home prices are going to rise 10.3% from this November until November 2021.

That’s on top of the already stellar growth realized since around 2012, when home prices seemed to bottom and begin their meteoric and historic ascent.

Those fortunate to have purchased a home around that time are sitting really pretty, especially since they probably also have a fixed-rate mortgage in the 2-3% range.

This super bullish housing forecast is also good news for prospective home buyers, as it shows there’s still room for home prices to move higher, even if you didn’t get in early.

The caveat is that it has become increasingly difficult to win a bid on a quality property.

2021 Home Price Growth to Be Highest Since 2006

2021 home prices

  • Zillow economists are forecasting a 10.3% rise in home prices from November 2020 to November 2021
  • This would be the best gain for U.S. property values in nearly 15 years
  • Home price appreciation already hit records for both monthly and quarterly gains recently
  • The year 2021 is expected to start white-hot with a 3.6% gain by the end of February

Per Zillow, the typical home value, known as the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) increased 1.1% from October to November to $263,351.

They refer to the ZHVI as “a smoothed, seasonally adjusted measure of the typical home value and market changes across a given region and housing type,” which generally reflects properties in the 35th to 65th percentile range (mid-market).

Anyway, the ZHVI has also risen 3% over the past three months, with both the monthly and quarterly gains the largest on record going all the way back to 1996.

This aggressive appreciation has home prices slated to chalk double-digit gains by next November, with Zillow economists forecasting a further 3.6% in the three months ending in February 2021, and 10.3% from November 2020 to November 2021.

That would push the typical home price in the United States to around $290,000, with $300,000 likely just around the corner in 2022.

For comparison sake, home values increased 7.5% since last year, perhaps slowed a bit by the COVID-19 pandemic when things came to a halt in spring.

What Will Drive Home Price Growth in 2021?

  • Continued low mortgage rates and limited housing inventory will be the theme
  • A new wave of Millennial and Gen-Z home buyers will also increase demand
  • And the hope of a COVID-19 vaccine should also fuel optimism for those sitting on the fence
  • All of these things will make the year 2021 yet another seller’s market

There are a number of things working in favor of even higher home prices in 2021, some of which are new and some of which are old.

As for the familiar stuff, it’s the continued availability of record low mortgage rates, which keep affordability in check despite ever-higher asking prices.

And 2021 mortgage rate predictions look similarly solid for those wondering if they’ll stick around.

Another ongoing issue that has pushed home prices higher has been limited housing inventory, which remains historically low with just a couple months of supply.

An emerging trend that has been known for a few years is the wave of prospective home buyers coming of age.

The typical first-time home buyer age is 34 years old, and there are about 45 million individuals who will celebrate that birthday over the next decade.

Collectively, we’ve got ultra-low mortgage rates, super limited inventory, and a growing number of potential home buyers.

It doesn’t take much effort to figure out what happens to home prices.

Sprinkle in a COVID-19 vaccine and you’ve got even more optimism, and perhaps more urgency for young folks to get serious and start families.

Ironically, the pandemic may accelerate a lot of plans as opposed to slow them down as people focus on what matters, not the trivial stuff.

Read more: 2021 Mortgage and Housing Market Predictions

Don't let today's rates get away.
About the Author: Colin Robertson

Before creating this blog, Colin worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. He has been writing passionately about mortgages for nearly 15 years.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com